My portfolio will have up to 20 systems, producing a good number of selections on most days. You can read all about the systems below. If you would like to have access to the selections, simply sign up to my blog page on Substack here and they will be emailed to you each day.
Expectations:
It goes without saying (I hope), that my expectations and what has been achieved in the past may be total ‘pie in the sky’ from this point on. At the end of the day, we are gambling and whilst I believe I have a real edge from the data and statistics that I have exported from Proform and the software that I have written to process them, it can all very easily go wrong and every system could lose. I obviously do not expect that to happen, but we must be realistic and understand the risks involved.
At the end of the day, even a system with a 30% strike rate will have 7 losers for every 3 winners over the long term. It is important to recognise there will be challenging losing runs with all of the systems below.
Systems:
AWHP – All Weather High PRB (AW):
These are selections based on the Percentage Of Rivals Beaten (PRB) by each horse in a given All Weather race. This will be a highly volatile system and a bank of 150 points is recommended. It was poor at the end of 2024.
AWMN – All Weather Maidens and Novices (AW):
This was a losing system last season but it has been amended (based on the data from the previous bets) and I expect it to be profitable from this point. There are not too many bets and it is therefore a relatively low risk option. A bank of 20 points is recommended.
CMA1 -Composite Rating System 1 (A/W):
This is a new system, written in September 2024 based on a Composite Rating that I have created that is exclusively a BOTMan rating. It looks at horse form relevant to the current race only. Back testing suggests this should be a reasonably high strike rate system and will hopefully give a decent ROI%. A bank of 100 points is recommended.
CMH1 -Composite Rating System 1 (Hurdle):
Similar to the above, with different factors applied to pick up selections for Hurdle races. A bank of 200 points is recommended.
CMT1 -Composite Rating System 1 (Turf):
This is a new system, written in August 2024 based a Composite Rating that I have created that is exclusively a BOTMan rating. It looks at horse form relevant to the current race and also factors in any draw bias, plus trainer and jockey form. This system combines the Composite Rating with my own PRB Rating and several other factors. Back testing suggestions this should be a reasonably high strike rate system and will hopefully give a decent ROI%. A bank of 75 points is recommended.
CMT2 -Composite Rating System 2 (Turf):
Similar to the above, with different factors applied to pick up selections from a different angle. A bank of 120 points is recommended.
CMT3 -Composite Rating System 3 (Turf):
Similar to the above, with different factors applied to pick up selections from a different angle and also using Ratings from the Race Advisor software (https://raceadvisor.co.uk/). A bank of 50 points is recommended.
IBCH – Irish Chasers (Chase):
Another system that will be volatile but again, it has made a decent returns in the past. It was poor at the end of 2024 though. A bank of 180 points is recommended.
OC32 – All Weather Ratings (AW):
This system uses a combination of my ratings to make selections specific to All Weather racing. It is relatively low volume with a decent strike and ROI%. A bank of 20 points is recommended.
OC34 – All Weather Claimers (AW):
This system uses a combination of my ratings to make selections specific to All Weather racing, when certain claiming riders are on board. It is relatively low volume with a decent strike and ROI%. A bank of 20 points is recommended.
VBS1 – Value Betting System 1 (Turf):
You can view a video about the creation of this system on this page. Right now, I am only posting the Turf version selections, but hopefully A/W and NH selections will become part of the portfolio soon. As a rule, selections tend to be bigger prices and so again, it can be volatile, though potentially very rewarding. A bank of 100 points is recommended.
WS13 – Sires (Chase):
This is a system that is based on research into sires in certain types of Chase races. It has been active in one form or another for several years and has always returned consistent profits over a season. A bank of 100 points is recommended.
WS21 – Race and PRB Rating (Turf):
This system uses my exclusive Race Specific and PRB Ratings to find Turf selections with a relatively high strike rate. It is a fairly low volume system and therefore the risk is on the low side too. A bank of 20 points is recommended.
WS23 – Going Adjustment (Turf, Hurdle and Chase):
NOTE: This is new and will almost certainly work better on Soft/Heavy going, especially when there are extremes.
This system is based on a metric made newly available within Proform Racing and goes deeper (no pun intended) into the variation of the standard going descriptions and for example breaks down heavy going into 5 different categories (from Heavy to Extremely Bottomless), depending on how bad the actual going is. I am hoping that this metric will enable us to take advantage of conditions when there are extremes, as I have the ability to look back over the years to see how a horse has performed in such going. As it is new, it is hard to predict what might happen, but I feel it must give us an all important edge. A bank of 50 points is recommended.
Each day, I can generate up to 40 bets from my currently active systems, which is a lot of bets to place manually.
I therefore use The Bet Engine (TBE) to manage my bets, simply linking a daily spreadsheet to the software, which then places my bets, based on the configuration I provide.
The daily email will contain a link to enable you to download a spreadsheet that is compatible with The Bet Engine or the Betfair API.
Please remember, if you are betting, keep your stakes small and have fun.
BOTMan Betting Systems 